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# [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries

This post contains my analytic replication of Noah's analyses. Quotes are from the paper unless otherwise stated. My code is here: https://gist.github.com/Deleetdk/a5913f7...0adb9a1456

Quote:"The mean terrorism threat level in the sample is 2.4, while the median is 2.5. "

Replicated.

Quote:"This variable ranges from 0 (Czech Republic) to 8.2 (France), with a mean of 3.1, and a median of 2.6."

Replicated, except I get a median of 2.52. Typo perhaps.

Quote:"21 countries (75%) in the sample sustained at least one military death in Iraq or Afghanistan; the mean number of military deaths sustained in Iraq or Afghanistan is 294, while the median is 11; 7 countries (25%) are part of the anti-ISIS military coalition."

Replicated.

Quote:"The correlation between terrorism threat level and percentage Muslim is r = .64 (p < 0.001; 95% CI = [.33, .95])"

Correlation replicated, CI differed. I get:

Code:
```> cor.test(d_main\$terror[d_main\$west], d_main\$muslim15[d_main\$west])     Pearson's product-moment correlation data:  d_main\$terror[d_main\$west] and d_main\$muslim15[d_main\$west] t = 4.2844, df = 26, p-value = 0.0002219 alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 95 percent confidence interval: 0.3555625 0.8196607 sample estimates:       cor 0.6433038```

This is an analytic CI. The paper does not say which kind of CI is used, so I assumed it was an analytic.

Quote:"When percentage Muslim squared was included in a model of terrorism threat level alongside percentage Muslim it was not significant (p > 0.1), indicating minimal non-linearity."

Replicated. R output:

Code:
```Call: lm(formula = "terror ~ poly(muslim15, 1)", data = d_main, subset = d_main\$west) Residuals:      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max -2.33148 -0.57178  0.03772  0.43508  1.85348 Coefficients:                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)     (Intercept)          3.258      0.256  12.726 1.13e-12 *** poly(muslim15, 1)   27.366      6.387   4.284 0.000222 *** --- Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 0.8865 on 26 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared:  0.4138,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.3913 F-statistic: 18.36 on 1 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.0002219 Call: lm(formula = "terror ~ poly(muslim15, 2)", data = d_main, subset = d_main\$west) Residuals:     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max -2.2881 -0.3663 -0.1067  0.6465  1.6725 Coefficients:                    Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept)          -7.519      8.858  -0.849    0.404 poly(muslim15, 2)1 -315.886    282.091  -1.120    0.273 poly(muslim15, 2)2  -72.623     59.668  -1.217    0.235 Residual standard error: 0.8784 on 25 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared:  0.4466,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.4024 F-statistic: 10.09 on 2 and 25 DF,  p-value: 0.0006133```

Quote:"The standardised difference in terrorism threat level by any military deaths in Iraq or Afghanistan is d = 0.67 (p > 0.05; 95% CI = [–0.20, 1.54])."

I get d = .69.

R output:

Code:
```d estimate: -0.6888248 (medium) 95 percent confidence interval:        inf        sup -1.6418342  0.2641846```

It was difficult to calculate a p value in r for the SMD. However, I think I managed to do it and got .13.

Quote:"The correlation between terrorism threat level and log of 1 + military deaths is r = .40 (p = 0.037; 95% CI = [.03, .77])"

Correlation and lower CI replicated, upper CI did not. R output:

Code:
```> cor.test(d_west\$terror, d_west\$deaths2)     Pearson's product-moment correlation data:  d_west\$terror and d_west\$deaths2 t = 2.1992, df = 26, p-value = 0.03696 alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 95 percent confidence interval: 0.02693856 0.67010334 sample estimates:       cor 0.3960353```

Quote:"When log of 1 + military deaths squared was included in a model of terrorism threat level alongside log of 1 + military deaths it was not significant (p > 0.1), indicating minimal non-linearity."

Replicated.

Quote:"The standardised difference in terrorism threat level by part of anti-ISIS military coalition is d = 1.34 (p < 0.001; 95% CI = [0.60, 2.08])."

I get 1.63.

R:

Code:
```Cohen's d d estimate: -1.632013 (large) 95 percent confidence interval:        inf        sup -2.6807130 -0.5833124```

I did not replicate the p value because the function I used rounded the number down to 0 (not your fault).

Quote:"Table 1. Effects of Muslim percentage and military intervention in the Middle East on terrorism threat level among Western countries."

Replicated.

Quote:"Table 2. Effects of Muslim percentage and military intervention in the Middle East on terrorism threat level among all OECD countries."

Replicated.

Quote:"Table 3. Effects of Muslim percentage and military intervention in the Middle East on terrorism threat level among OECD countries located in Europe."

Replicated.

--

I'd like to resolve these slight discrepancies but note that the results generally replicated.

[OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-27, 12:23:00
Review - by Emil - 2016-Apr-27, 14:24:14
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-28, 15:55:00
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-28, 18:17:21
Analytic replication - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 02:05:48
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-02, 16:00:01
Review #2 - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 02:54:57
Reply to Noah #7 - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 21:51:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-03, 18:52:46
Review #3 - by Emil - 2016-May-03, 19:05:39
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-03, 21:01:20
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-12, 02:54:13
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-12, 18:59:35
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-12, 21:28:17
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-25, 01:40:16
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-25, 15:51:52
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-May-03, 21:05:22
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-01, 16:25:52
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-Jun-02, 04:39:35
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-02, 13:17:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-02, 15:29:20
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-02, 16:07:09
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-03, 16:03:21
Review #3 - by Emil - 2016-Jun-05, 02:15:22
Analytic replication #2 - by Emil - 2016-Jun-10, 17:59:12
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-10, 20:48:04
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-10, 21:47:25
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by ljzigerell - 2016-Jun-15, 05:27:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-17, 18:24:53
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by ljzigerell - 2016-Jun-17, 21:14:31
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-21, 18:37:11
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-Jun-24, 00:55:58
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-24, 08:54:45
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-28, 17:32:01
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Nov-14, 19:36:01

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