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[OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries

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Many thanks for commenting on the manuscript. I attach a revised paper (with corrections highlighted), a revised pdf (without corrections highlighted), a datafile, and a Stata do file (in Word format).

Emil Wrote:A further option is that these countries despite being inhabited mostly by Muslims, have been allied with Western governments in attacks or perceived attacks on Muslims. Turkey is a member of NATO and has taken part in aggression against Muslim states: Turkey was part of the aggression in Libya and Afghanistan and as well as the current conflict in Syria. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wa...ing_Turkey


I have changed the relevant sentence.

Emil Wrote:I think you mean ordinal or perhaps interval scale. Multiple regression/correlation assume interval scale.


I have changed the relevant sentence.

Emil Wrote:I am happy you mentioned this problem. It is unfortunate that they did not provide more useful answers.

Do other countries or agencies publish similar terrorism threats? If they do, it would be nice to replicate the analyses with their measures, perhaps also use factor analysis if one could find a number of sources. I seem to recall that EUROPOL also publishes some similar data.


I am not personally familiar with any other terrorism threat measure similar in nature to the one provided by the FCO.

Emil Wrote:Finally, does the FCO still have their older terrorism threat estimates? It may be interesting to look at the threat level longitudinally. It is possible to estimate the proportion of Muslims in countries longitudinally as well (using country of origin information + a simple compositional model á la http://openpsych.net/ODP/2015/03/increas...1980-2014/).


That would be a very interesting analysis to conduct. However, I do not believe it would be feasible to obtain the relevant data from the FCO in any reasonable time frame, especially given how unresponsive they were to my emails.

Emil Wrote:Is there a reason that these threshold variables are used instead of a (log transformed perhaps) death count? The number 50 seems arbitrary and may as well have been e.g. 25. One might also argue that one should use per capita death counts. The datafile only has the dummy coded variables, not the actual counts, unfortunately, so others cannot easily try a continuous approach.


I have utilised log of 1 + military deaths instead of at least 50 military deaths in all the multiple regression models.

Emil Wrote:There is also the question of why the countries only include Iraq and Afghanistan and not, say, Syria or Libya. ISIS is based in Syria and Iraq, so there would seem to be prima facie reason to include these two given that ISIS is the most active Islamic terrorist organization currently operating (as far as I know).


Including these interventions doesn't really make any difference––unless I'm mistaken––since the countries that took part are simply a subset of those that participated in Iraq & Afghanistan. In addition, very few military deaths have been sustained by Western forces in Syria and Libya, and there doesn't seem to be any standardised database (equivalent to iCasualties) for those conflicts.

Emil Wrote:Why were these particular variables chosen and not others? The paper does not mention any reason one might want to control for these variables.


I have included a paragraph explaining why each control variable was chosen.

Emil Wrote:The betas are not shown for the control variables. Why is this?


Given that the focus of the paper is the effects of percentage Muslim and military intervention, I would prefer not to unnecessarily clutter the regression tables with more coefficients. This practice is quite common in economics and sociology.

Emil Wrote:I am not a big fan of p values. I would be very happy if you instead used confidence intervals for the reasons given in e.g. http://pss.sagepub.com/content/25/1/7.

However, if you really want to use p values, perhaps it would a good idea to supplement with confidence intervals in important cases. Since there are relatively few datapoints, it would perhaps be best to use bootstrapped CIs because these do not involve parametric assumptions (are your variables normally distributed?).


I have reported 95% confidence intervals for the raw estimates.

Emil Wrote:I would prefer that you drop any mentioning of 10% 'significance'. It's a too high level of alpha in my opinion.


I have eliminated mentions of 10% significance.

Emil Wrote:What happens if one includes more than one of the military intervention against Muslim states predictors? I imagine they show appreciable levels of collinearity, so that may not yield anything useful.


Yes––unless I'm mistaken––the collinearity is close to perfect.

Emil Wrote:An alternative choice is log transformation. Was this also tried?


The paper now reports that the log transformation was also tried, and it yielded highly similar results.

Emil Wrote:The datafile is attached. Could you instead place it on OSF? This is a better way to keep files and has built in versioning.


I'm not sure how to do this. I haven't used OSF before.

Emil Wrote:The variables are mentioned in the first sheet, but there are no links to the sources. Presumably these are web sources, so it would be very helpful with links.


I have provided links to the sources.

Emil Wrote:Finally, how were the data analyzed? There is no code file attached so that others may review the analysis code.


I have provided the Stata do file (in Word format) used to analyse the data.

Emil Wrote:There is some evidence that the countries with more Muslims also have Muslims that are on average more extreme. Muslims in Western countries are less extreme in their beliefs than Muslims in their home countries.

It is hard to find data about this. I analyzed Pew Research's Muslim dataset and found a clear general religious extremism factor that varied by country. Unfortunately, there are no Western countries in the dataset, so one cannot compare with the extremism of Muslims in e.g. Germany so easily. This means that there is substantial restriction of range decreasing the observed correlation. Still, there is a small positive correlations between mean extremism and proportion of the population that is Muslim. See the attached plot.

Blogpost: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/?p=5485

If this correlation is real and causal, it is a confound for your models.


Interesting point. I would prefer not to deal with this issue in the present paper, especially given the fact that there were no Western countries in your sample. Perhaps it could be looked at in a future analysis.


Attached Files
.docx   Terrorism Threat 2.docx (Size: 113.04 KB / Downloads: 495)
.pdf   Terrorism Threat 2.pdf (Size: 177.26 KB / Downloads: 404)
.xlsx   Terrorism Threat 2.xlsx (Size: 63.59 KB / Downloads: 352)
.docx   Terrorism Threat do.docx (Size: 13.77 KB / Downloads: 370)
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Messages In This Thread
[OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-27, 12:23:00
Review - by Emil - 2016-Apr-27, 14:24:14
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-28, 15:55:00
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Apr-28, 18:17:21
Analytic replication - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 02:05:48
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-02, 16:00:01
Review #2 - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 02:54:57
Reply to Noah #7 - by Emil - 2016-May-02, 21:51:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-03, 18:52:46
Review #3 - by Emil - 2016-May-03, 19:05:39
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-03, 21:01:20
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-12, 02:54:13
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-12, 18:59:35
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-12, 21:28:17
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-May-25, 01:40:16
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-May-25, 15:51:52
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-May-03, 21:05:22
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-01, 16:25:52
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-Jun-02, 04:39:35
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-02, 13:17:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-02, 15:29:20
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-02, 16:07:09
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-03, 16:03:21
Review #3 - by Emil - 2016-Jun-05, 02:15:22
Analytic replication #2 - by Emil - 2016-Jun-10, 17:59:12
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-10, 20:48:04
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-10, 21:47:25
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by ljzigerell - 2016-Jun-15, 05:27:15
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-17, 18:24:53
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by ljzigerell - 2016-Jun-17, 21:14:31
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Jun-21, 18:37:11
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Chuck - 2016-Jun-24, 00:55:58
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-24, 08:54:45
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by Emil - 2016-Jun-28, 17:32:01
RE: [OQSPS] Explaining Terrorism Threat Level Across Western Countries - by NoahCarl - 2016-Nov-14, 19:36:01
 
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