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# [ODP] Immigrant GPA in Danish primary school is predictable from country-level variab

John,

(2014-Dec-30, 00:35:58)Chuck Wrote:
(2014-Nov-26, 19:38:54)Emil Wrote: The new immigration report has come out. Every year the Danish Statistics Agency releases a report on immigration in Denmark. This year they have included quite a lot of more useful data. As a new thing, it includes GPAs for some countries of origin, but only for a small number and only for second generation. I will update the paper with these new data and analyses of them.

http://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/Publikati...?cid=19004

To give some perspective, could you provide the standardized differences with respect to the indigenous Danish norm? This would better allow me to judge the generational effect. Is there no way to estimate how mix generation the first sample was? For example, comparing the first and second sample sample size.

One problem with interclass correlations is that it doesn't take into account the absolute differences. Thus, you might have a national-IQ second generation GPA correlation of 1, with trivial actual differences. Thus, providing standardized differences is helpful.

They don't report standard deviations, so it isn't possible to calculate Cohen's d.

This report concerning schools in the Copenhagen area report SD as being: 1.01, 1.09 and 1.11 for years 2012, 2013 and 2014. But this is a between school number, not between-student number.

I had a look at UNI-C data explorer. One can fetch the raw numbers for how many got each grade here.

Code:
```Count    Grade    (x-mean)^2 405    -3    95.05 16428    0    45.56 56625    2    22.56 115647    4    7.56 143423    7    0.06 101669    10    10.57 63873    12    27.57 Weighted mean         6.75         Weighted var         11.61         Weighted SD         3.41```

So, if I did this right, the gaps between groups are marked by orange in the spreadsheet I linked Peter to. Group difference d's are .50, .38, and .12.

I can calculate the predicted IQ gap by generation and age as well, but have not done so. This one should be compared with GPA to see how the estimated general intelligence difference compares with the grade difference.
Peter,

Sorry for the late reply. I was busy with an exam.

(2014-Dec-30, 23:31:30)Peter Frost Wrote: Emil,

I notice that girls do better than boys in the second dataset. Do we see the same sex difference in the first dataset or does the sex difference increase as one goes from the foreign-born to the Danish-born?

The first dataset does not have data broken down by gender. All the data there is, is in the paper.

UNI-C does not have data by specific countries of origin, only Danish/1. gen./2. gen. and sex. I have translated the data and put them here for you.

The overall gender difference is somewhat stronger in Natives: .8 vs. .6 and .6 for 1st and 2nd gen. This is somewhat surprising given that female immigrants do much better in Denmark. Perhaps there is still some suppression which is responsible for the .2 difference to Danish natives. Or maybe immigrants have a different difference between the genders.
(2015-Jan-14, 14:28:28)Emil Wrote: John,

I can calculate the predicted IQ gap by generation and age as well, but have not done so. This one should be compared with GPA to see how the estimated general intelligence difference compares with the grade difference.

Can you include a brief comment on this?
Yes, give me a few days. One can fetch population data by the age group of 9th graders (about 15 years old) and by generation (first and second). These one can feed to the model discussed in me and Bo's immigration inequality paper to get an estimate of the IQ of this group. Then one can calculate the d value for IQ and compare it with the d values for GPA above.

GPA has to do with other things than general intelligence (e.g. academic interest and Cons.) which the groups probably do not differ so much in. So one needs the g-GPA correlation among 9th graders and then one can calculate the expected GPA gaps given only the modeled IQ difference.
The first dataset concerns 9th grade pupils both generations in the years 2007-2009.
The second concerns 9th grade second generation pupils in the years 2009-2013.

I fetched population data for both of these groups from the DST.

I had to estimate some missing countries e.g. Czechoslovakia, from Czech Rep. and Slovak Rep.

Output is:
09-13 group, 2nd gen:
Mean IQ: 87.2
IQ SD: 16.3

07-09 group, mixed gen:
Mean IQ: 87.3
IQ SD: 16.7

So, the IQ d gap is a bit less than 1 according to the modeling, depending on which SD one uses to calculate d.

What is the correlation of IQ x GPA in primary school? Perhaps .5? If so, these results are in the right ballpark.
(2015-Feb-02, 16:58:19)Emil Wrote: The first dataset concerns 9th grade pupils both generations in the years 2007-2009.
The second concerns 9th grade second generation pupils in the years 2009-2013.

I fetched population data for both of these groups from the DST.

I had to estimate some missing countries e.g. Czechoslovakia, from Czech Rep. and Slovak Rep.

Output is:
09-13 group, 2nd gen:
Mean IQ: 87.2
IQ SD: 16.3

07-09 group, mixed gen:
Mean IQ: 87.3
IQ SD: 16.7

So, the IQ d gap is a bit less than 1 according to the modeling, depending on which SD one uses to calculate d.

What is the correlation of IQ x GPA in primary school? Perhaps .5? If so, these results are in the right ballpark.

OK, add a comment about this. There is nothing more that I would like you to add. After you make the appropriate additions, I approve publication. (Generally. I feel that all of the ST hypothesis papers should discuss generational effects.)
Often the data does not have generational information, so that makes it difficult to say much about the matter.
(2015-Feb-02, 20:34:14)Emil Wrote: Often the data does not have generational information, so that makes it difficult to say much about the matter.

Edited.

Perhaps, yet it also makes it simple to handle the issue briefly. In such cases, you can just note that generational effects are an important issue, that they could not be explored with the present data set, and that exploration of these is an important area for future research.
Actually, the groups I calculated for above were the wrong ones if one wants to compare with the UNI-C data. The right groups are: first generation, 15 year olds, 2014 data; second generation, 15 year olds, 2014 data.

Results are:
First gen.
Mean IQ: 87.6484
IQ SD: 17.73221

Second gen.
Mean IQ: 86.75102
IQ SD: 16.46624

So little change in the means, but larger chance in SDs. There are fewer Western immigrants in the second generation, so this reduces the mean and the SD somewhat.

I have written a new version with all this stuff. I will have someone proofread it before posting it here.
Laird has been so kind as to proofread it. The latest draft (#5) is on OSF now along with the new source code etc.

https://osf.io/p9d5z/

The new draft has a new section re. the size of the GPA gaps, which includes both calculations on a country-level and at the total immigrant population level by generation.

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